Sick of Gurus

About the desk

The same room. No velvet rope.

It's easier to invent the future than to predict it.

Alan Kay (1971)

Institutional method, retail seat

The method

  • Quality of the business first.
  • Price second.
  • Both tests visible, every name.

The seat

  • No velvet rope between a fund and a household book.
  • An AI analysis tool on a value-investing method — not a hedge fund, broker, analyst, or adviser.
  • Third-party names are a style of work, not affiliation.

Under every score: official registers for that floor, SEC companyfacts as a 10-K cross-check, and FRED rates. Context — never a second bar.

The joke

Get rich quick?

Leave any page and the browser tab asks the guru question. Come back. The answer is No. Also: there is no magic formula.

Their method is Promise, paywall, rented car, “I shouldn’t be sharing this.” This desk is a three-factor screen and two gates. Homework, not a webinar. Buffett already wrote the rest: you only have to get rich once. That is why the Avoid band exists — and why Pass still needs the screen, score ≥ 70, and 30% below the estimate.

Open Get rich quick

Who built it

The desk. Fifteen years in regulated brokerage and portfolio management went into this bar before a single ticker was scored on this site.

The bar, in plain English

Three-factor screen

3

P/E, margin, ROIC

Fwd P/E ≤ 20 · Net margin ≥ 15% (ROA ≥ 1% for banks) · ROIC ≥ 15% (ROE for banks and underwriters)

The three-factor screen is an intersection, not a compromise — a name clears only if it is simultaneously cheap on its own earnings (Yahoo forward P/E at or under 20 — price ÷ Yahoo forward EPS; trailing vs forward differing by more than 20% is flagged, not silent), structurally profitable (net margin at least 15% for an operating company; Yahoo ROA at least 1% for a bank — NI / net interest income is not a manufacturer's 15% test; net income / revenue for an underwriter when Yahoo omits the print; omitted for REITs), and efficient with capital (ROIC at least 15%, or ROE for a bank or underwriter — each reinvested dollar actually earns) — so one outstanding print does not get a name through; it has to show no visible weakness on all three at once. PEG is a Lynch tape print, not a Pass box and not a fourth vote in any average — Buffett does not use it. Forward P/E ≤ 20 is the entry gate on this list on purpose: quality-adjusted earnings power is how a name already on the list is valued, not a back door for a 24× compounder.

Worked example of the four-factor worksheet that sat in every box — not TopPicks, not a recommendation.

Quality

70+

80% of the score — 10 quality sleeves, including years of cash to retire net debt, current ratio, and beta. Not a fifth Pass box.

Price

−30%

At least 30% below estimated intrinsic value. A wonderful business at a fair price still misses this gate.

11 philosophies · 7 valuation methods · 10 quality sleeves · 3-factor screen.

Years of cash sit in the score. The published bar is still the screen, 70+, and −30%.

Philosophies · 11

  • Warren Buffett

    Owner earnings, franchise quality, margin of safety.

  • Charlie Munger

    A few wonderful businesses. Invert. Avoid being stupid.

  • Philip Fisher

    Scuttlebutt. Own a decade, not a quarter.

  • Benjamin Graham

    Bond-yield-corrected formula — a conservative floor, not a franchise vote.

  • Peter Lynch

    PEG=1 growth cross-check. Shown on the tape; not a Pass box. Not allowed to outvote owner earnings on a compounder.

  • Seth Klarman

    High leverage needs extra margin of safety.

  • Michael Burry

    Inventory and receivables outrunning sales.

  • Ray Dalio

    Mix, not a stock-picking cult. 13F on Holdings.

  • Guy Spier

    Cash from operations has to fund the business.

  • Stanley Druckenmiller

    Concentrate when the facts change. Lagged 13F.

  • Bill Ackman

    A short list, still run through our two gates.

Valuation methods · 7

Each name uses the methods that match the business. A bank is not a DCF. A REIT is not Graham. A compounder is not a 1962 P/B rule.

  • Owner-earnings DCF

    Compounders — free cash, split-adjusted shares. Not used for banks, underwriters, or asset managers.

  • Quality-justified earnings power

    A multiple this quality of business can historically support.

  • Graham formula

    Conservative floor. Equal vote only on cyclicals, not on Apple-class franchises.

  • Lynch PEG=1

    Growth cross-check. Withheld when it implies a P/E no wonderful business trades at.

  • Excess return on book

    Banks and underwriters — not a corporate FCF DCF. Residual income is capped at 2× book so an 8% US rate cannot mint a 50% bargain at 2.3× P/B.

  • FFO / AFFO

    REITs — funds from operations, not GAAP depreciation.

  • Mid-cycle earnings

    Cyclicals — a peak year is not compounded forever.

Quality sleeves · 10

These vote inside the 80% quality score. Years of cash is a sleeve, not a fifth screen box.

  1. Return on capital
  2. Profitability (ROE, capped when buybacks inflate it)
  3. Operating margin
  4. Net margin
  5. Revenue growth
  6. Balance sheet
  7. Net debt / FCF (years of cash)
  8. Current ratio (voted on capital-heavy names; shown on a compounder)
  9. Beta (versus the market — shown, not voted)
  10. Share count (buybacks vs dilution)

Screen · 3 factors

Intersection, not a compromise. All applicable boxes at once.

  1. Forward P/E ≤ 20
  2. Net margin ≥ 15% (ROA ≥ 1% for banks — NI/NII is not the test; NI / revenue for underwriters; omitted for REITs)
  3. ROIC ≥ 15% (NOPAT / (equity + debt − cash); ROE for banks and underwriters; fails on negative book or P/B > 10)

Four layers of risk

Not every cheap print is cash you can own

How sure is it that future cash will reach, legally and economically, the owner of this security?

  1. A. Business risk

    The operating company can still be an excellent business. That is not the whole print.

    Competition · Demand · Price pressure · Rising costs · Technology · Whether management can execute the strategy

  2. B. Financial risk

    Whether reported profit is cash the owner can keep. Klarman, Spier, cash conversion, and SBC already sit under the score.

    Debt · Liquidity · Profit converting to cash · Capital needs · Dilution from stock-based compensation · Currency risk

  3. C. Structure and governance

    The ADS is not the operating company. A VIE or Cayman/Ireland wrapper can leave the minority holder without control.

    Rights of an investor who buys ADSs · VIE structure · Founder control · Reporting transparency · Capital-allocation discipline · Minority-shareholder protection

  4. D. Jurisdiction and geopolitics

    Rules, audits, and repatriation sit outside a US cost of capital. A low multiple is not automatically cheap.

    Local and international regulation · Tariffs and trade restrictions · US–China relations · Audit verification · Delisting · Capital transfer and repatriation

  • Method A — Higher discount rate. A mature US company is discounted around 9%. A name with VIE, ADS, or US–China geopolitical risk uses 11–14%. The published 30% price gate does not move — the estimate gets more conservative.
  • Method B — Weighted scenarios. 30% × bear + 50% × base + 20% × bull. Worked tape: 30% × 70 + 50% × 120 + 20% × 165 = 114. Shown on the tape. The published IV is not this blend.
  • Method C — Explicit haircut. A separate 25% cut for jurisdiction, governance, VIE, geopolitics, and weaker transparency. Adjusted value = economic DCF × (1 − haircut). MOS = (adjusted − price) / adjusted. Worked tape: 125 × (1 − 0.25) = 93.75 at 82.25 is 12.3% MOS, not 34.2% without the cut. Applied to the published estimate on VIE / China-ops receipts.
  • Method D — Position limit. Even when the print looks cheap, a VIE / ADS line does not get to dominate a book. Valuation and size are separate decisions. Cap is 5% of the book. Not a Pass box.

Search prints this as a caution on VIE and China-ops receipts. Method A raises the discount rate. Method C takes 25% off the published estimate. Method D caps a VIE line at 5% of a book. None of this moves the 80/20 mix or the 30% price gate.

Adjusted value = economic DCF × (1 − haircut). MOS = (adjusted − price) / adjusted. Published MOS uses the adjusted value.

Desk practical formula: adjusted value = economic DCF × (1 − haircut). MOS = (adjusted − price) / adjusted. Worked tape: 125 × (1 − 0.25) = 93.75 at 82.25 is 12.3% MOS, not 34.2% without the cut. Method A sets the 11–14% rate. Method B is the 30/50/20 scenario tape. Method C takes 25% off the estimate for VIE / jurisdiction / opacity. Method D caps that line at 5% of a book even if it looks cheap. Not a fifth Pass box. 80/20 and the 30% price gate do not move.

Institutional rule: do not pay for ruin or permanent-loss risk with a low multiple alone. Measurable risks get scenarios and probabilities. Risks that are hard to measure get a position limit. Weaker transparency demands more MOS — the 25% haircut is how that demand hits the published estimate; the 30% gate does not move. A high-jurisdiction name does not become a central book line just because it looks statistically cheap.

PDD institutional tape: bear 55–70 (central 62.5), base 90–105 (central 97.5), bull 125–150 (central 137.5). At 82.25 the quote sits ~32% above bear — no protection in a severe scenario. Base MOS is 15.6%, short of the 30% gate a high-jurisdiction name needs. Bull MOS is 40.2%, but a committee does not buy on the optimistic case. Disciplined zone on base: 97.5 × 0.75 = 73.1 (25%) and 97.5 × 0.70 = 68.3 (30%). Tape only. Published MOS still uses Method A + C. The 30% gate does not move.

  • Owner earnings for franchises. Excess return on book for banks. FFO for REITs. Mid-cycle earnings for cyclicals.
  • Share counts are split-adjusted. Buybacks shrink the slice; they do not invent earnings.
  • P/E, PEG, and P/B are not inside quality — that mix used to mark a capital-light franchise as Avoid.
  • Official registers, SEC companyfacts, and FRED rates sit under the score. They never move the two gates.
  • Coverage is 1,930 names. Search still runs on any listed equity the feed can resolve. See coverage.

This print

Both gates re-ran on this delayed Yahoo quote. Not a live terminal. The filings are history on purpose — that is the engine. The quote is today’s. Speed without the 30% bar is just a faster wrong number.

Money flows

  • Green is money rotating in. Red is money rotating out.
  • Eleven Select Sector SPDRs versus SPY — not a paid EPFR or Lipper tape.
  • Educational — not a buy or sell list.

Public proxy: State Street Select Sector SPDRs versus SPY. Green means the sector is beating the S&P 500 on a 5-day and 1-month relative return — a standard public stand-in for money rotating in. Red means it is lagging — money rotating out. This is price and volume, not a paid EPFR or Lipper fund-flow tape. Educational, not a buy or sell order.

Reading Select Sector SPDRs versus SPY…

Plans

Free is the score. Premium ($16/mo) keeps lists and talks to the phone. Book ($29/mo) is that seat with the whole book on a spreadsheet. Billing is not live.

See plans

Desk log

2 September 2026. One click saves a Word file of what shipped today and what is still open. Not a web page. Educational, not a buy or sell list.

Disclaimer

Sick of Gurus is an AI analysis tool. It applies a published value-investing method — quality of the business first, then a margin of safety — to delayed quotes and filed fundamentals. It is not a broker, not a bank, not a hedge fund, not a registered investment adviser, and not an analyst. Scores, intrinsic-value estimates, Guru Take, Top Picks, alerts, Track record, and portfolio snapshots are general educational information. They are not personal advice, they do not take a reader’s personal circumstances, tax, or risk capacity into account, and they are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past results do not guarantee future results. You can lose money, including the entire value of an equity. Figures are as of the timestamp on each print. Quotes are delayed. Fundamentals are the latest filed period. There is no obligation to update a snapshot after it is published. The operator of this desk may hold, or may have held, names that appear on public lists. Personal holdings do not move the published bar.

“Citadel,” “Buffett,” and other third-party names appear only as public reference points for a style of work. They do not sponsor, endorse, or partner with Sick of Gurus.

Full Disclaimer · Terms and Conditions